Edition #7 April 19, 2019
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The Mueller Report

The Special Counsel’s report (PDF) has finally been released. It's 448 pages. This is the letter (PDF) Attorney General William Barr sent to Congress along with the report.

Breaking Intel

BREAKING: North Korea claims to have "test-fired" a tactical weapon. Hearing that it was not a ballistic missile. But this is still big. Still a provocation. As we reported, he's trying to force the U.S.'s hand. Additionally, Yonhap is reporting Kim Jong Un’s team wants Secretary of State Mike Pompeo out! A State Department spokesperson told Inside the SCIF today, "We are aware of the report. The United States remains ready to engage North Korea in a constructive negotiation."

In the Headlines

A former colleague, friend and fan of CIA Director Gina Haspel took a little bit of an exception to how her relationship with President Donald Trump was portrayed in The New York Times this week. Douglas Wise told Inside the SCIF that the piece, titled "Gina Haspel Relies on Spy Skills to Connect With Trump. He Doesn’t Always Listen," is very insightful, but doesn’t quite capture what she’s doing.

But Wise said that suggestion "was a journalistic conceit I found to be unhelpful, quite frankly. It was a shallow simplification of what for Gina was an exceptionally complex situation. It would’ve been potentially very damaging to the nation to the institutional president and the CIA if she had created an intentionally unhealthy relationship with the president. This wasn't using spy skills. This was just using her maturity, her experience, her understanding that the most important thing about this is that the president had the opportunity to make informed decisions. It had nothing to do with tradecraft."

ALERTS

Three years after U.S. intelligence noticed Russian intelligence meddling in the election, we may now be getting a picture of the global scope of their campaign. Russian propaganda fills the airwaves, social media is packed with trolls, Kremlin sympathizers roaming the streets with loads of money throwing "friendship" dinners — all the while stoking anti-Western sentiments. Sound familiar? Yes, this is going on in the U.S., but this story is about what's happening in Madagascar and 38 other countries around the world. Guess who's allegedly at the center of it. Yvgeny Prighozin, Russian President Vladimir Putin's, so-called "Chef." A Russian investigative media group — supported by Putin nemesis Mikhail Khodorkovsky — called "The Project" has uncovered an elaborate operation called "the back office." Millions of dollars has allegedly been poured into the effort and is so highly organized that each staffer has a special phone to keep them in direct contact with Prigozhin.

Travel Warning:

The State Department is warning: "Do not travel to Sudan due to crime, terrorism, civil unrest, kidnapping and armed conflict. On April 11, 2019, the Department ordered the departure of non-emergency U.S. government employees. Violent crime, such as kidnapping, armed robbery, home invasion, and carjacking, is common."

SITUATION REPORT — The stuff I'm covering — that I can share — from this week.

1. The Trump administration may be one step closer to ousting Venezuelan dictator Nicholas Maduro. His former Intel chief has been arrested. On Friday, April 12, Hugo Carvajal was arrested at his son's house in Madrid. Sources tell me it happened about 3:30 p.m. local time after an Interpol Notice was acted upon by Spanish authorities. The notice was issued by the U.S. not long after his arrest, the Justice department requested his extradition to the U.S. on drug trafficking charges. Carvajal was Hugo Chavez's director of Military Intelligence and, by default, he fulfilled the same role under Nicholas Maduro. The twist here is that in February he switched sides and began supporting Juan Guaido as the legitimate President of Venezuela. There are unconfirmed reports that Carvajal may have wanted to turn himself in to hasten Maduro's downfall and save his own skin.
2. Last week, the U.S. government designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including its Qods Force, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) under section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act. I’m starting to learn more about why.

This may seem like a pure political act, but there is a real threat involved here. In July of 2018, I interviewed Alireza Jafarzadeh, deputy director of the Washington office of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, about a brazen plot to bomb an event with more than 100,000 people in attendance.

That was one month before this bombshell that many of us missed.

Jafarzadeh told Inside the SCIF that in August of last year: "I was not aware that I was one of the two targets of their (the Iranian Regime) ‘capture/kill’ operation until I looked at a criminal complaint filed in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C. After I looked at the pictures of the arrested agents, I realized that I had seen Ghorbani in the restaurant I dined at a few times in the Los Angeles area. After I learned about the arrests of the two men, I was pleased, but not surprised, as I knew the regime has been very active in the United States after several failed plots in Albania and Paris earlier in the year against our movement."

3. Looking more deeply into this: British spies block suspected Russian assassin from entering the UK five months after Sergei Skripal novichok attack.

Key Judgements:

World Aware says the security situation will likely remain tenuous in Sudan after the ouster of former President Omar Al-Bashir on April 11.

"A military transitional council led by former Defense Minister Abdel Fattah Al-Burhane has called for a dialogue with the political opposition and civil society groups. However, protests by pro-democracy activists will likely continue around the country. Activists will likely stage sit-ins in front of the army headquarters in Khartoum. The primary demand of protesters and armed groups is for a civilian government to replace the military council; these groups are opposed to any form of a transitional administration dominated by the military and want the rule of law. Possible differences between the new leaders and demonstrators will further increase tensions if the standoff between protesters and the military continues.

Sudan’s political situation is complicated by the presence and power of multiple stakeholders with entrenched interests that are difficult to reconcile. The current military leadership is challenged by the need to accommodate all components of the powerful security apparatus built during Al-Bashir’s reign. Sudan’s stability will largely depend on how the new administration, political parties and militias engage with one another. The failure to reach a comprehensive deal could plunge the country into another civil conflict. Groups backing the former regime could direct their energies toward destabilizing the current leadership. In addition, a possible new takeover of the government by radical members of the security forces cannot be ruled out."

Military

On March 27, the Secretary established a Sexual Assault Accountability and Investigation Task Force to "review and recommend improvements to our sexual assault military justice processes. The team is finalizing the draft interim progress report now, which is due to the Secretary by April 30. Our approach to eliminate sexual assault is holistic and includes efforts to prevent this crime, support and care for our victims, and enhance our robust and comprehensive military justice process."

Counterterrorism

AFRICOM says a top ISIS commander was killed.

U.S. confirms airstrike against ISIS-Somalia’s Abdulhakim Dhuqub

In coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia's continued efforts to degrade violent extremist organizations, U.S. Africa Command conducted an airstrike in the vicinity of Xiriiro, Bari Region, Somalia, on April 14, 2019, killing Abdulhakim Dhuqub, a high-ranking ISIS-Somalia official.

As second in command of ISIS-Somalia, Dhuqub was responsible for the daily operations of the extremist group, attack planning and resource procurement.

CYBER

Don’t use Internet Explorer — it has a critical security flaw that allows hackers to spy on you and steal personal data. Read more at Forbes.

THE TARGET USA POCAST

This week on Target USA: A Maryland man plotted to run over people using a stolen U-Haul. FBI Acting Special Agent in Charge Jennifer Moore, Prince George's County Police Chief Hank Stawinski and WTOP Reporter Megan Cloherty join us to explain what happened and what's next in the war against terrorism.

THE HUNT

On this week’s edition of "The Hunt," the U.S. government recently designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp as a foreign terrorist organization. On this edition with WTOP national security correspondent J.J. Green, Alireza Jafarzadeh, deputy director of the Washington office of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, says the designation is long overdue.

BIRDWATCHERS (British slang for spies)

Here’s the latest on American Paul Whelan, who was detained in Moscow on December 28, 2018. Moscow claims he’s "a spy."

I spoke with David Whelan, Paul’s twin brother, on April 17, and he confirmed what many of us have suspected: Paul’s arrest on 12/28/18 was a misguided attempt by the FSB (Russian Federal Security Service) to detain an American they thought would be of great political value. After realizing he was not, "corrupt" elements inside the FSB have tried to save face by trying to force Paul to plead guilty to something he didn’t do.

Read what happened this week.

THE LOCKBOX: (...aka Sensitive Stuff I've Learned)

A statement Attorney General William Barr made during the news conference announcing the release of the Mueller report is drawing some attention. He was asked about the Special Counsel testifying before Congress. He said Mueller could go in his "personal" capacity. ???

FOREIGN POLICY

While there’s talk of a third summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un to discuss denuclearization, I hear Russia’s Vladimir Putin is also planning a meeting with Kim as well.

Read more.

INTERESTING EVENTS

Transatlantic Relations in a Time of Political Transition: A Symposium

After two years into the Trump presidency with the prospect of a changing EU leadership following European elections in May, we now have a unique opportunity to take stock of the state of the transatlantic relationship and to look ahead to the coming years. Crucial issues include:

1. Follow-up to the U.S.-EU Joint Statement following the Trump-Juncker meeting from July 2018, including when it comes to trade negotiations
2. The U.S.-EU-China strategic triangle, in the context of the Belt and Road initiative's latest news, and U.S. concerns with Europe's 5G plans
3. The outlook for European economies, ten years after the onset of the 2008 crisis, and the approaching conclusion of the "Europe 2020" strategy
4. Prospects for Brexit negotiations, following the recent European Council's decision to push the deadline back to October 31, 2019

Over the past two years, the George Washington University’s Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies has explored these and related issues through a "Jean-Monnet" speakers' series funded by the European Commission, in partnership with recent and upcoming holders of the Presidency of the Council. This symposium — the capstone event of the Jean-Monnet series — will feature three sessions:

10:00 - 11:15 a.m. — Session 1: His Excellency Stavros Lambrinidis, EU Ambassador the United States

11:30 a.m. - 12:45 p.m. — Session 2: Her Excellency Kirsti Kauppi, Ambassador of Finland to the United States

12:45 - 1:15 p.m.: Lunch

1:15 - 3:00 p.m. — Session 3: Dr. Stefano Braghiroli, University of Tartu, Estonia, Dr. Heinz Gaertner, University of Vienna, Georgiana Boboc, Romanian Institute for the Study of the Asia-Pacific (RISAP), Charly Salonius-Pasternak, Finnish Institute for International Affairs (FIIA), Miroslav Josic, adviser to the Executive Director for Benelux/Croatia, IMF.

WHEN:

Tuesday, April 23, 2019
10 a.m. - 3:30 p.m.
State Room, 7th Floor
Elliott School of International Affairs
1957 E St NW

RSVP here

RECOMMENDED READS:

"Madame Fourcade's Secret War"

"In 1941, a thirty-one-year-old Frenchwoman and mother of two became leader of a vast Resistance intelligence organization. No other French spy network lasted as long or supplied as much crucial intelligence, including providing American and British military commanders with a 55-foot-long map of the beaches and roads on which the Allies would land on D-Day, showing every German gun emplacement, fortification, and beach obstacle along the Normandy coast."

HARD STOP

1. Thanks to Julia and Will, for their expertise on this project and I’m deeply grateful to all the sources who tell me stuff.
2. This newsletter is going to evolve. You’ll see new periodic features and some that become regular.
3. If you work in the national security world, I'm very interested in what you’re seeing that I don’t. Contact me with the subject line "Inside the SCIF" and let me know what you have. If you need to do it more securely — let me know and I’ll tell you how to do it.
4. Please subscribe to "Inside the SCIF."

Finally, as always, news is not what people are talking about; it’s what we don’t know about. My goal is to find out what it is.